Selection Of Forecasting Methods For Baby Products To Accurately Predict Sales (Case Study at PT ABPI Jakarta Branch)

Abstract

Rapid business growth faces the main challenge of adjusting production to fluctuating market demand. The mismatch between production volume and demand can cause various problems, such as overproduction resulting in waste of resources, underproduction causing the inability to meet market demand on time. This study aims to determine the most accurate forecasting method for the NSP-1006 Sumo Round Bottle Bpa Free 240 ml, NSP-3006 Sumo Round Bottle BpaFree 50 ml, 3-2103-Mh Bottle 3 Function 150 cc, TS-3S Accessories 3-tier milk container, and F-338 Baby Training Cup 3 in 1 Accessories. The research method uses descriptive quantitative. The analysis method used is naive approach, simple moving average, linear regression, simple exponential smoothing. The accuracy benchmark usesMean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Data collection techniques use primary data and secondary data. The results of the study show that the NSP-1006 SumoRound Bottle Bpa Free 240 ml has an accurate forecasting method which is the linear regression method, the NSP-3006 Sumo Round Bottle Bpa Free 50 ml has an accurate forecasting method which is the linear regression method,the 3-2103-Mh Bottle 3 Function 150 cc has an accurate forecasting method which is the naive method, the TS-3S 3-tier milk container accessories have an accurate forecasting method which is the naive method, and the F-338 Baby Training Cup 3 in 1 accessories have an accurate forecasting method which is the linear regression method.